Obama's cross-strait conundrum

Formosan Association for Public Affairs (FAPA) president Dr. Bob Yang (advocating for an independent Taiwan) and Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) Freeman Chair in China Studies senior fellow and US government consultant Bonnie Glaser (read Michael Turton's eloquent description of her position) sat down with Al Jazeera's Riz Khan on November 17, 2009 to discuss recent events affecting the Taiwan-US-China relationship.

Here's the show in two parts. Watch it in a larger viewer by clicking the titles below each video.


13:01 YouTube video: "Riz Khan - Obama's cross-straits conundrum - 17 Nov 09 - Pt 1"

9:29 YouTube video: "Riz Khan - Obama's cross-straits conundrum - 17 Nov 09 - Pt 2"
At the end, Glaser talks about the majority supporting "the status quo," muddying the waters for those who don't realize that Taiwan is not now and has never been part of the People's Republic of China (PRC), but it is nice to at least hear her admit that without China's threats, the vast majority of Taiwanese would have no qualms about declaring independence.

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Pieces of the puzzle: Taiwan, 台灣, Bonnie Glaser, 葛來儀, Bob Yang, 楊英育, Riz Khan, 康立茲

Cross-posted at Taiwan Matters!

Labels: Bob Yang, Bonnie Glaser, Riz Khan, Taiwan, 台灣, 康立茲, 楊英育, 葛來儀

The list of signatories grows by almost 20%

Writer Jerome F. Keating, Ph.D. and thirty other scholars and writers from the US, Canada, Asia, Europe and Australia have penned a fifth open letter about the serious problems occurring under the administration of President Ma Ying-jeou.

The letter reminds us that "a decrease of tension across the Taiwan Strait would indeed be welcome, but [...] that this should not be done at the expense of the hard-won democracy" and that "Taiwan should be more fully accepted by the international community as a full and equal partner." Read the full letter at the link above, but here is a large excerpt [emphasis mine]:

During the past two decades, Taiwan has made major progress in each of these areas [freedom, democracy, justice and human rights]. It thus has been a disappointment for us to see an erosion of justice, a weakening of checks and balances in the democratic system and a decline in press freedom in Taiwan. These trends are reflected in the significantly downward ratings Taiwan received in the annual reports of international organizations such as Freedom House and Reporters without Borders.

They are also reflected in the expressions of concern by international scholars and friends of Taiwan related to the flaws in the judicial proceedings against former President Chen Shui-bian and the apparent lack of neutrality in the continuing "investigations" and indictments of other prominent members of the DPP government. We thus appeal to you again to ensure that measures are taken to ensure the impartiality and fairness of the judiciary.

Good governance, accountability and transparency based on the fundamental principles of freedom, democracy, justice and human rights are all the more essential now that your government is moving Taiwan on a path of closer economic ties with China. We believe that a decrease of tension across the Taiwan Strait would indeed be welcome, but emphasize that this should not be done at the expense of the hard-won democracy and the establishment of human rights in Taiwan itself.

Thus, the process of improving relations with the large neighbor across the Strait needs to be an open, deliberative and democratic process, in full consultation with both the Legislative Yuan and the democratic opposition, and fully transparent to the general public. We are thus pleased to hear that officials of your government have stated that any agreement with China would need to have both a domestic consensus, including approval by the Legislative Yuan, and acceptance by the international community. We trust this process will be open and consultative in ways that respect the democratic traditions begun so promisingly two decades ago.

The prequels
Don't forget the earlier parts of this long-running series, listed here in chronological order:

* November 6, 2008: Scholars and writers from around the world publish an "Open letter on erosion of justice in Taiwan." The same letter -- as an online petition -- has been signed by more than 2,000 people.

* November 25, 2008: Minister of Justice Wang Ching-feng (王清峰) calls the open letter "inaccurate."

* December 2, 2008: "Eroding justice: Open letter No. 2" counters Wang Ching-feng's claims.

* January 8, 2009: Over a month later, Wang Ching-feng comes up with "clarif[ications]" regarding the open-letter writers' so-called "misunderstandings."

* January 21, 2009: "Eroding justice: Open letter No. 3" is addressed to President Ma Ying-jeou.

* January 24, 2009: Two more "US-based Taiwan experts add [their] names to open letter [No. 3]."

* January 25, 2009: President Ma claims the public had gained confidence in the judiciary in 2008 -- the exact opposite of what this Taiwan News article tells us they actually felt:

According to recent surveys conducted by Academia Sinica and the Web site Yahoo! Kimo, over 50 percent of the people do not believe in Taiwan's judicial system and over 75 percent have no confidence that the Judicial Yuan will undertake judicial reform [...]

* May 22, 2009: An estimable group of scholars and writers -- 26 in all, and each one with a deep understanding of Taiwan and the surrounding facts -- has composed an open letter addressed directly to President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九). The letter addresses the ever-increasing problems with judicial fairness, press freedom, the lack of transparency in the Chinese Nationalist Party's (KMT) rapprochement with China, the loss of Taiwan's sovereignty, and the loss of human rights. The argument the letter makes is rock solid. It is based on demonstrable facts.

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John Hancocks: Taiwan, 台灣, Ma Ying-jeou, 馬英九, open letter, 公開信, Jerome Keating, 祁夫潤, human rights, 人權, sovereignty, 主權

Cross-posted at Taiwan Matters!

Labels: human rights, Jerome Keating, Ma Ying-jeou, open letter, sovereignty, Taiwan, 主權, 人權, 公開信, 台灣, 祁夫潤, 馬英九

... in just five months!

UPDATE 2a: The title and subheadline of this post [originally: "Support for Taiwan's immediate independence nearly triples ...in just six months!" -- based on a comparison with the MAC survey quoted below] has been changed to reflect a better comparison with a survey done by the same pollster the month after the MAC poll. Details from that poll and a link to the original are included below in "Update 2b." [/update 2a]

An article from Now News shows that a poll released today by the deep-blue Global Views Magazine (遠見雜誌) has some very interesting numbers related to the desire for Taiwan's formal independence:

民調顯示，19.0%民眾贊成台灣應該儘快獨立、10.3%認應先維持現狀再獨立（急獨與緩獨合計29.3%），40.7%先維持現狀再看情形、 11.0%永遠維持現狀（維持現狀合計為51.7%），4.3%先維持現狀再和大陸統一、4.0%台灣應該儘快和大陸統一（緩統與急統合計為8.3%），與馬總統執政以後，民眾贊成統一的比率並無變動。

[Tim Maddog translation:]
The survey says that 19.0% support independence as soon as possible. 10.3% want to preserve the status quo for now but declare independence later. (Supporters of immediate independence and delayed independence amount to 29.3%.) 40.7% want to preserve the status quo and decide later, while 11% want to preserve the status quo indefinitely (totaling 51.7% in favor of preserving the status quo [sic]). 4.3% want to preserve the status quo but unify with the mainland [sic] later. 4.0% of Taiwanese want to unify with the mainland [sic] as soon as possible. (Those in favor of unification add up to 8.3%.) After President Ma took office, there has been no change in support for unification.

UPDATE 1: Here's a direct link to the latest Global Views survey [464 KB PDF file]. [/update 1]

UPDATE 3: Here's the English version of the Global Views survey [152 KB PDF file]. [/update 3]

Just six month's ago, Taiwan's so-called Mainland Affairs Council (大陸委員會) did a survey which said that "6.7%" supported independence as soon as possible [12 KB PDF file].


A Mainland Affairs Council (MAC) survey from April 17 to 20, 2009
in which only 8.8% state a desire for Taiwan's unification with China.
UPDATE 2b: A May 13 - 15, 2009 survey from Global Views [744 KB PDF file] says:

[...] 15.0%贊成儘速獨立 [...]

[Tim Maddog translation:]
[...] 15% support immediate independence [...]

The current figure of 19% support for immediate independence would therefore amount to an increase of 26.66% (a four percentage point increase from the earlier 15%). The total support for unification in the May 2009 poll amounted to 8.3% -- precisely the same as the most recent poll. [/update 2b]

China's Chen Yunlin (陳雲林) -- chairman of the Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Strait -- is coming to Taiwan for talks (and possibly to sign agreements) with Straits [sic] Exchange Foundation (海峽交流基金會) chairman and Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) vice-chairman Chiang Pin-kung (江丙坤) this December. Will you be out there protesting?

You are not in the minority. You'd better let the world hear your voices!

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Nodes: Taiwan, 台灣, China, 中國, Taiwan Independence, 台灣獨立, survey, 民調, Chiang Pin-kung, 江丙坤, P.K. Chiang, Chen Yunlin, 陳雲林

Cross-posted at Taiwan Matters!

Labels: Chen Yunlin, Chiang Pin-kung, China, P.K. Chiang, survey, Taiwan, Taiwan Independence, 中國, 台灣, 台灣獨立, 民調, 江丙坤, 陳雲林